Charting avocado prices in the US.

Avocados offer an interesting proposition for both growers and buyers alike – from their beloved presence at Super Bowl parties and Cinco de Mayo festivities to just a typical weeknight dinner. Whether you’re an avocado grower trying to maximize your profits or a grocery store buyer looking to get the best deal possible, tracking avocado price changes can make all the difference.

US Avocado Market Trends and 2023 Forecast

Avocado prices can be affected by various factors: weather conditions, market availability, and economic forces, such as inflation and global trade policies. In the US, avocado supplies had fluctuations in recent years, leading to price swings; but 2023 shows some promise. US Avocado Prices: What to Expect this Year In 2023, the US is expected to reach a record-breaking avocado consumption of about 3 billion pounds. The good news for avocado buyers is that an oversupply of avocados is expected until mid-2023. Mexico, Peru, Colombia, and the US’ Californian state will contribute to these avocado volumes. The California Avocado Commission estimates 257 million pounds of avocado yields in 2023; Hass avocados are expected to dominate this supply with 243 million pounds. Just in the week ending Feb. 26, California is expected to produce 5.1 million pounds of avocados.

This expected avocado supply glut will equate to lower avocado pricing. The increase in avocado volumes began in the last quarter of 2022, which led to a wholesale avocado price drop of 35% year-on-year. To the delight of avocado traders and consumers, this continued growth of avocado yields in 2023 is a huge improvement compared to the previous year, when the US experienced lower volumes and higher prices.

Fluctuations in Avocado Prices and Supply Volumes

Throughout 2020 and 2021, the price of avocados, in its Cartons 2 Layer presentation, has fluctuated constantly in the US, with prices generally decreasing at the beginning and end of the year, while the highest prices appear between March and September.

By the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022, prices followed this same trend; however, prices have not stopped increasing. By June, the price had been the highest of the year, even reaching a maximum in the last two years with $60.5 per package.

Compared to June 2020 and 2021 ($36.0 and $38.23 per package), the mid 2022 avocado prices increase represented a 68.1% and 58.3% rise, respectively.

The US recorded an avocado price increase during 2022, reaching a price of $60.5 per Cartons 2 Layer package in June, the highest price in the last two years.

It is no coincidence that precisely during this period in 2022, the USDA reported a significant reduction in the avocado supply compared to the two previous years.

Regarding this, in June of this year, the USDA reported 184 million pounds, while for the same period in 2020 and 2021, more than 259 and 238 million pounds were recorded, respectively.

Despite these recent fluctuations, avocados are expected to remain the fastest-growing commodity in the long term and reach a production of 12 metric tons by 2030, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030.

Solutions Built for Avocado Traders

At ProducePay, we aim to provide a better produce trade for all stakeholders in the industry. We offer a range of services that help every kind of produce business grow.

• • Pre-Season Financing, where we offer growers up to $30M in working capital within 30 days, enabling them to manage harvest expenses and invest in operational efficiencies.

• • Quick-Pay Financing, which provides fresh produce growers with guaranteed payment of up to 96% on invoices within 24 hours – enhancing liquidity during the growing season, bridging cash flow gaps, and freeing up capital for investment.

• • Market insights, such as updated reports on price, movement, and more.

• • Sustainability programs to assist with meeting ESG goals.

• • Supply chain services that link sellers with pre-vetted third-party logistics partners to ensure a trusted delivery process.

During 2022 alone, we reached more than 700 customers in 10 countries and had nearly $4 billion in transactions through our online marketplace. Contact us to learn more about how ProducePay can help you improve your fresh produce business.

Sources:

• • California Avocado Commission. Current Crop Estimates.

• • CNN. Grocery prices are soaring. But this food favorite is getting cheaper.

• • Fresh Fruit Portal. Agronometrics in Charts: Rains leave favorable prospects for California avocados.

• • OECD. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030.

• • Statista. Volume of fresh avocado imports into the United States from 2012/13 to 2021/22.