Currently, demand is growing around the world for avocado. Estimates indicate that this trend will continue until at least 2030, driven by an increase in production and by the avocado’s many benefits for human health.
Despite the considerable increase in volume entering the market in recent years, prices have remained relatively stable, even showing an upward trend. This begs the question of how long this situation will continue, because it certainly cannot continue forever.
Hass avocado in the United States
The main suppliers of fresh avocado for the US market (the top global consumer) are Mexico, California, Chile, Peru and Colombia. However, Mexico is widely known to be the undisputed leader, with a significant increase in avocado shipments to the United States in the last two decades.
As surprising as this sustained increase in avocado volume is, what’s even more surprising is that prices have not fallen. There is only one possible explanation: avocado consumption by Americans has increased at the same rate, or even outpaced, the increase in volume.
For reference, more than 3 billion pounds (1,370,756 metric tons) were consumed in the United States in 2021. Furthermore, the Hass avocado reached an average price of 2.40 USD/kg in 2000, while the average price in 2020 was 2.90 USD/kg, even reaching 4.00 USD/kg in 2017.
Where is the limit?
At some point, avocado consumption will start to stabilize, but at this time no one knows for sure when that will happen. In fact, it appears from the lack of available information that no one wants to risk making a prediction.
In reality, the limit may still be several decades away. There are several reasons for this, most notably the annual global increase in per capita income. This increase enables new consumers to access products like the avocado, which were previously considered exotic or seasonal, but which are now commodities with year-round production.